As we approach the new year one tradition I'd be happy to do away with is...FUTURE PREDICTIONS.

When you consider that we can barely predict the weather a day or two out, how can we predict what new technologies will take hold in a dynamic industry.

People are bad at making predictions and that includes experts.

Humans tend to overestimate the probabilities of rare events. In general, human forecasters assign too-high a probability to change and too-low a probability to status quo. Moderate forecasts consistently outperform extreme forecasts. The bolder the prediction the more likely it is to be wrong. If changes are to occur they are more likely to be small changes than extreme changes. People tend to get carried away with their predictions, looking for extremes to happen even when they know that the probability for change is small.

"Partisans across the opinion spectrum are vulnerable to occasional bouts of ideologically induced insanity." -- Philip Tetlock

Why do we make predictions? It's part of our nature, we are constantly predicting outcomes of things. And since we all make personal predictions, we seem interesting in sharing predictions. But as Robin Hanson, associate professor of economics at George Mason University and a research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University argues, most people aren't interested in the accuracy of predictions because predictions often aren't about knowing the future. They are about affiliating with an ideology or signaling one's authority.

Those with a vested interest in the outcome of a prediction are blinded by the flaws of their forecast and tend to make poor predictions. They attribute successful predictions to skill but blame poor ones on bad luck.

The data center industry is no less void of these types of predictions. When considering predictions remember Professor Hanson's comments about why people make public predictions, to signal authority or because they have vested interest in the predictions outcome.

When the experts say there are big changes coming to the Data Center industry, ask what they stand to gain by the prediction, and remind ourselves, as with most predictions, they are more likely to be wrong than right.